Asteroid 2024 YR4 is a near-Earth object discovered on December 27, 2024, by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) in Chile. It is estimated to be between 40 and 90 meters in diameter.
Current calculations indicate a small chance of Earth impact on December 22, 2032. As of February 7, 2025, NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies has estimated the probability of impact at approximately 2.3%, or 1 in 43.
In response to this potential threat, NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA) are closely monitoring 2024 YR4. The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) is scheduled to observe the asteroid in March and May 2025 to refine estimates of its size, composition, and trajectory.
If 2024 YR4 were to impact Earth, it could release energy comparable to the 1908 Tunguska event, which caused significant regional damage. However, it's important to note that as more observations are gathered, the impact probability may be revised. Historically, many asteroids initially considered potential threats have been later determined to pose no risk.
International planetary defense teams are evaluating potential mitigation strategies, including deflection missions, should the need arise.
Continuous monitoring and analysis over the coming years will be crucial in determining the actual risk posed by 2024 YR4.
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