Impact of quantum threats on NATO

Impact of quantum threats on NATO

Quantum threats have a significant impact on NATO’s security posture and strategy, prompting the alliance to urgently develop and integrate quantum technologies while defending against quantum-enabled adversaries. The key points regarding the impact of quantum threats on NATO are:

- **Dual Nature of Quantum Technologies:** NATO recognizes quantum tech as a double-edged sword. Quantum capabilities can provide the alliance with revolutionary advantages in sensing, communications, computing, and intelligence collection, enhancing situational awareness and operational efficiency. At the same time, quantum advances by potential adversaries pose risks by enabling new vulnerabilities, cryptographic attacks, and asymmetries in power.

- **Quantum-Safe Communications:** A primary challenge is safeguarding NATO’s communication and information systems against quantum-enabled attacks, especially from quantum computers capable of breaking current encryption algorithms (such as RSA and ECC). NATO has transitioned its cryptographic systems towards **post-quantum cryptography (PQC)** and is also exploring **quantum key distribution (QKD)** for unbreakable encryption. NATO completed successful trials of quantum-safe VPNs blending classical and quantum-resilient encryption to protect future communications.

- **Strategic and Operational Implications:** Quantum technologies affect NATO’s nuclear deterrence, conventional forces, and cyber defense capabilities. For example, quantum sensing advances could improve submarine detection, navigation, and precision timing without reliance on GPS. These capabilities can shift power balances and require NATO to prevent new capability gaps and maintain technological edge.

- **Alliance and Ecosystem Cooperation:** Given the complexity and dual-use nature, NATO stresses close cooperation among its member states and partners to develop a resilient “quantum-ready” ecosystem. This includes joint research, innovation funds, coordinating standards, and countering adversarial interference in supply chains for quantum technologies.

- **Strategic Communications and Stability:** NATO also addresses the risk of disinformation campaigns targeting public trust in military quantum technologies, aiming to maintain societal support and alliance cohesion.

- **Talent and Innovation:** NATO highlights the critical need for quantum expertise and accelerating innovation cycles to keep pace with peer competitors adopting quantum tech.

Overall, NATO’s approach balances leveraging quantum technologies to augment defense and deterrence while proactively defending against the new threats these technologies pose, maintaining alliance readiness and strategic stability in an era of rapid quantum-driven change.

This synthesis is based on NATO’s official quantum strategy and recent analyses of NATO’s efforts to integrate quantum-safe cryptography and quantum sensing in defense systems[1][2][3][5][6][7].

Citations:

[1] Quantum Technologies and NATO's Deterrence ... https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/quantum-technologies-natos-deterrence-defense-posture-holitschke-nhjde

[2] Quantum Technologies and the Science for Peace and ... https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/2023/11/pdf/231130-SPS-Quantum-1487-23.pdf

[3] Summary of NATO's Quantum Technologies Strategy https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_221777.htm

[4] U.S.-Allied Militaries Must Prepare for the Quantum Threat ... https://www.rand.org/pubs/commentary/2025/06/us-allied-militaries-must-prepare-for-the-quantum-threat.html

[5] L’OTAN publie sa toute première stratégie pour le quantique https://www.nato.int/cps/fr/natohq/news_221601.htm?selectedLocale=en

[6] Military https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/policy/int/nato-quantum-technologies-strategy-summary_20240116.htm

[7] NATO Completes Quantum-Safe Comms Test https://www.infosecurity-magazine.com/news/nato-completes-quantumsafe-comms/

[8] NATO Issues Quantum Technologies Strategy https://www.iotworldtoday.com/quantum/nato-issues-quantum-technologies-strategy

[9] Quantum Technology, Peace and Security https://unidir.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/UNIDIR_quantum_technology.pdf

[10] Nato's quantum technology strategy https://taiwancss.org/natos-quantum-technology-strategy/