What is known
Pakistan and Saudi Arabia signed on 17 September 2025 a Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement. Under this pact, the two agree that an attack on one is an attack on both.
Pakistan’s Defense Minister, Khawaja Mohammad Asif, publicly stated that Pakistan’s nuclear capabilities “will be made available” to Saudi Arabia under this agreement.
He emphasized this was under the terms of the new pact.
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What is not clear / what remains ambiguous
The exact operational definition of “made available”: Does this mean Saudi Arabia would have direct access to nuclear weapons, or would it be more like Pakistan “shielding” Saudi via its own deterrent (similar to how some nuclear umbrellas function)? The language is vague.
What triggers the use of the nuclear part of the deterrent/support. Is it only in the case of existential threats? Will Saudi Arabia have a say in the decision? How binding is the commitment? These points are not spelled out publicly.
Whether this changes Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine — officially, Pakistan has long stated its nuclear arsenal is focused against its traditional adversary India.
How other global actors (especially the U.S.), and institutions (IAEA, etc.) view or interact with such a pact in terms of nuclear non-proliferation norms, treaties, etc. There isn’t yet public documentation on that.
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Implications and risks
Deterrence / signal: This is a strong signal to other regional actors (Israel, Iran, etc.) that Saudi Arabia is seeking stronger guarantees for its security, and that Pakistan is willing to play a more explicit role in Gulf security.
Strategic balance change: If Saudi Arabia effectively has a nuclear umbrella, this could shift calculations in the Middle East. It potentially raises the stakes for adversaries and could lead to reactions (military, diplomatic) from states that perceive a heightened threat.
Diplomatic and legal risk: Under international non-proliferation regimes (like the NPT), nuclear sharing or enabling access to nuclear weapons is sensitive. Even ambiguity might draw scrutiny or cause tensions with powers invested in nonproliferation.
Obligations and cost: Pakistan may face pressure to clarify its commitments; what “defending jointly” means in practice (nuclear retaliation? Conventional forces? etc.). The danger of escalation is always higher in these kinds of mutual defense arrangements.
India’s reaction: India has already expressed concern and said it expects Saudi Arabia to take into account mutual interests and “sensitivities.” India likely sees this as a development affecting its security calculus.
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